Publications

Background

Surgical care delivery is poorly understood in resource-limited settings. To effectively move toward universal health coverage, there is a critical need to understand surgical care delivery in developing countries. This study aims to identify the barriers and facilitators of surgical care delivery at Soroti Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda.

Methods

In this mixed methods study, we (1) applied the Surgeons OverSeas’ Personnel, Infrastructure, Procedures, Equipment, and Supplies tool to assess surgical capacity; (2) retrospectively reviewed inpatient records; (3) conducted four semistructured focus group discussions with 18 purposively sampled providers involved in perioperative care; and (4) observed the perioperative process of care using a time and motion approach. Descriptive statistics were generated from quantitative data. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed.

Results

The Personnel, Infrastructure, Procedures, Equipment, and Supplies survey revealed severe deficiencies in workforce (P-score = 14) and infrastructure (I-score = 5). Equipment, supplies, and procedures were generally available. Male and female wards were overbooked 83% and 60% of the time, respectively. Providers identified lack of space, patient overload, and superfluous patients’ attendants as barriers to surgical care. Workforce challenges were tackled using teamwork and task sharing. Inadequate equipment and processes were addressed using improvisations. All observed subjects (n = 31) received interventions. The median decision-to-intervention time was 2.5 h (Interquartile Range [IQR], 0.4, 21.4). However, 48% of subjects experienced delays. Median decision-to-intervention delay was 14.8 h (IQR, 0.9, 26.6).

Conclusions

Despite severe workforce and physical infrastructural deficiencies at Soroti Regional Referral Hospital, providers are adjusting and innovating to deliver surgical care.

Introduction

Colorectal polyps usually present with rectal bleeding and are associated with increased risk of colorectal carcinoma. Evaluation and management in resource-poor areas present unique challenges.

Presentation of case

This 15 year-old boy presented with 9 years of painless rectal bleeding and 2 years of a prolapsing rectal mass after passing stool. He had 3 nephews with similar symptoms. On clinical assessment and initial exam under anesthesia, an impression of a polyposis syndrome was made and a biopsy taken from the mass that revealed inflammatory polyps with no dysplasia. He was identified during a pediatric surgical outreach to a rural area with no endoscopy, limited surgical services, and no genetic testing available, even at a tertiary center. He subsequently had a three-stage proctocolectomy and ileal pouch anal anastomosis with good outcome after referral to a tertiary care center. The surgical specimen showed many polyps scattered through the colon.

Discussion

In the absence of endoscopic surveillance and diagnostic services including advanced pathology and genetic testing, colorectal polyposis syndromes are a significant challenge if encountered in these settings. Reports from similar settings have not included this surgical treatment, often opting for partial colectomy. Nonetheless, good outcomes can be achieved even given these constraints. The case also illustrates the complexity of untreated chronic pediatric surgical disease in rural resource-poor areas with limited health care access.

Conclusion

Polyposis syndromes in children present unique challenges in rural resource-poor settings. Good outcomes can be achieved with total proctocolectomy and ileal pouch anastomosis.

Recent initiatives in global health have emphasized universal coverage of essential health services. Surgical conditions play a critical role in child health in resource-poor areas. This article discusses (1) the spectrum of pediatric surgical conditions and their treatment; (2) relevance to recent advances in global surgery; (3) challenges to the prioritization of surgical care within child health, and possible solutions; (4) a case example from a resource-poor area (Uganda) illustrating some of these concepts; and (5) important child health initiatives with which surgical services should be integrated. Pediatric surgery providers must lead the effort to prioritize children’s surgery in health systems development.

The body of literature addressing surgical and anesthesia care for children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is small. This lack of research hinders full understanding of the nature of many surgical conditions in LMICs and compromises potential efforts to alleviate the significant health, welfare and economic burdens surgical conditions impose on children, families and countries. This article will evaluate the need for improved global pediatric surgery research by (1) presenting the current state of surgical research for children in LMICs and (2) discussing methods and opportunities for improvement within the political context of current global health priorities.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist is a cost-effective tool that has been shown to improve patient safety. We explored the applicability and effectiveness of quality improvement methodology to implement the WHO checklist and surgical counts at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda between October 2012 and September 2013. Compliance rates were evaluated prospectively and monthly structured feedback sessions were held. Checklist and surgical count compliance rates increased from a baseline median (IQR [range]) of 29.5% (0-63.5 [0-67.0]) to 85.0% (82.8-87.5 [79.0-93.0]) and from 25.5% (0-52.5 [0-60.0]) to 83.0% (80.8-85.5 [69.0-89.0]), respectively. The mean all-or-none completion rate of the checklist was 69.3% (SD 7.7, 95% CI [64.8-73.9]). Use of the checklist was associated with performance of surgical counts (p value < 0.001; r(2) = 0.91). Pareto analysis showed that understaffing, malfunctioning and lack of equipment were the main challenges. A carefully designed quality improvement project, including stepwise incremental change and standardisation of practice, can be an effective way of improving clinical practice in low-income settings.

Background

There are ongoing efforts to improve the quality of surgical care for children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa. The purpose of this study was to review the recent literature and estimate the mortality associated with pediatric surgical conditions in this setting.

Methods

We completed a comprehensive search for studies that: (1) reported outcomes associated with pediatric surgical conditions; (2) were conducted in LMICs in Africa; and (3) were published between 2007 and 2012. Abstract screening, full-text review, and data abstraction were completed in duplicate. Mortality rates were pooled using a random effects model.

Results

Out of 2085 abstracts, 292 were selected for textual review, and 107 underwent complete data abstraction. Only 74 (68%) of these reported mortality explicitly. The highest pooled mortality rates were seen with esophageal atresia (72%), midgut volvulus (36%), and jejunoileal atresia (35%). Pooled mortality was 17% for congenital conditions and 9% for acquired disease. The overall mortality rate for all conditions was 12%.

Conclusions

Mortality following pediatric surgical conditions in LMICs in Africa remains high, especially for congenital conditions in neonates. Future studies should report mortality explicitly and provide accurate follow-up data whenever possible.

Background

Research is critical to the training and practice of surgery and anesthesia in all settings, regardless of available resources. Unfortunately, the output of surgical and perioperative research from Africa is low. Makerere University College of Health Sciences’ (MakCHS) surgical and anesthesia trainees are required to conduct research, though few publish findings or go on to pursue careers that incorporate research. We believe that early career experiences with research may greatly influence physicians’ future conduct and utilization of research. We therefore sought to analyze trainee experiences and perceptions of research to identify interventions that could increase production of high-quality, locally led, surgical disease research in our resource-constrained setting.

Methods

Following ethical approval, a descriptive, cross-sectional survey was conducted among anesthesia and surgery trainees using a pretested, self-administered questionnaire. Data were tabulated and frequency tables generated.

Results

Of the 43 eligible trainees, 33 (77%) responded. Ninety-four percent identify research as important to career development, and 85% intend to publish their dissertations. The research dissertation is considered a financial burden by 64%. Also, 49% reported that their departments place low value on their research, and few of the findings are utilized. Trainees report that lack of protected research time, difficulty in finding research topics, and inadequate mentorship are the main challenges to conducting research projects.

Discussion

Our anesthesia and surgery trainees spend considerable resources on research endeavors. Most have significant interest in incorporating research into their careers, and most intend to publish their work in peer-reviewed journals. Here we identify several challenges facing trainees including research project development, financing and mentorship. We hope to use these results to improve support in these areas for our trainees and those in other resource-limited areas.

Surgically correctable congenital anomalies cause a substantial burden of global morbidity and mortality. These anomalies disproportionately affect children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) due to sociocultural, economic, and structural factors that limit the accessibility and quality of pediatric surgery. While data from LMICs are sparse, available evidence suggests that the true human and financial cost of congenital anomalies is grossly underestimated and that pediatric surgery is a cost-effective intervention with the potential to avert significant premature mortality and lifelong disability.

Purpose

Reported outcomes of neonatal surgery in low-income countries (LICs) are poor. We examined epidemiology, outcomes, and met and unmet need of neonatal surgical diseases in Uganda.

Methods

Pediatric general surgical admissions and consults from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2012, at a national referral center in Uganda were analyzed using a prospective database. Outcomes were compared with high-income countries (HICs), and met and unmet need was estimated using burden of disease metrics (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs).

Results

23% (167/724) of patients were neonates, and 68% of these survived. Median age of presentation was 5days, and 53% underwent surgery. 88% survived postoperatively, while 55% died without surgery (p<0.001). Gastroschisis carried the highest mortality (100%) and the greatest mortality disparity with HICs. An estimated 5072 DALYs were averted by neonatal surgery in Uganda (met need), with 140,154 potentially avertable (unmet need). Approximately 3.5% of the need for neonatal surgery is met by the health system.

Conclusions

More than two thirds of surgical neonates survived despite late presentation and lack of critical care. Epidemiology and outcomes differ greatly with HICs. A high burden of hidden mortality exists, and only a negligible fraction of the population need for neonatal surgery is met by health services.

Background

The number of international academic partnerships and global health programs is expanding rapidly worldwide. Although the benefits of such programs to visiting international partners have been well documented, the perceived impacts on host institutions in resource-limited settings have not been assessed adequately. We sought to describe the perspectives of postgraduate, Ugandan trainees toward international collaborations and to discuss how these perceptions can be used to increase the positive impact of international collaborations for the host institution.

Methods

We conducted a descriptive, cross-sectional survey among anesthesia and surgery trainees at Makerere College of Health Sciences (Kampala, Uganda) using a pretested, self-administered questionnaire. Data were summarized as means or medians where applicable; otherwise, descriptive statistical analyses were performed.

Results

Of 43 eligible trainees, 77% completed the questionnaire. The majority (75%) agreed that visiting groups improve their training, mostly through skills workshops and specialist camps. A substantial portion of trainees reported that international groups had a neutral or negative impact on patient care (40%). Only 15% agreed that research projects conducted by international groups are in priority areas for Uganda. Among those surveyed, 28% reported participation in these projects, but none has published as a coauthor. Nearly one-third of trainees (31%) reported discomfort with the ethics of some clinical decisions made by visiting faculty.

Conclusion

The current perspective from the surgery and anesthesia trainees of Makerere College of Health Sciences demonstrates rich ground for leveraging international collaborations to improve training, primarily through skills workshops, specialist camps, and more visiting faculty involvement. This survey also identified potential challenges in collaborative research and ethical dilemmas that warrant further examination.

The global burden of disease (GBD) has been measured primarily through the use of the DALY metric. Using this approach, preliminary estimates were that 11% of the GBD is surgical. However, prior work has questioned specific aspects of the GBD methodology as well as its practicality. This paper refines other conceptual approaches based on met and unmet population need for services by considering incident and prevalent need as well as backlogs for treatment that can inform effective coverage of services. Some of these methods are tested using the example of surgical repair of cleft lip and palate. Measurement of disability incurred by delays in care may also be estimated through these approaches and has not previously been estimated through a validated model. These concepts may provide more practical information for individuals and organizations to advocate for scaling up surgical programs. While many surgical conditions are unique, as a single intervention can lead to cure, these concepts may also prove useful for non-surgical diseases. Further exploration of these approaches is merited in resource-limited settings.

Pulse oximetry is a standard of care during anaesthesia in high-income countries. However, 70% of operating environments in low- and middle-income countries have no pulse oximeter. The ‘Lifebox’ oximetry project set out to bridge this gap with an inexpensive oximeter meeting CE (European Conformity) and ISO (International Organization for Standardization) standards. To date, there are no performance-specific accuracy data on this instrument. The aim of this study was to establish whether the Lifebox pulse oximeter provides clinically reliable haemoglobin oxygen saturation (Sp O2 ) readings meeting USA Food and Drug Administration 510(k) standards. Using healthy volunteers, inspired oxygen fraction was adjusted to produce arterial haemoglobin oxygen saturation (Sa O2 ) readings between 71% and 100% measured with a multi-wavelength oximeter. Lifebox accuracy was expressed using bias (Sp O2 – Sa O2 ), precision (SD of the bias) and the root mean square error (Arms). Simultaneous readings of Sa O2 and Sp O2 in 57 subjects showed a mean (SD) bias of -0.41% (2.28%) and Arms 2.31%. The Lifebox pulse oximeter meets current USA Food and Drug Administration standards for accuracy, thus representing an inexpensive solution for patient monitoring without compromising standards.

Introduction

In recent years, surgical providers and advocates have engaged in a growing effort to establish metrics to estimate capacity for surgical services as well the burden of surgical diseases in resource-limited settings. The burden of disease (BoD) studies have established the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as the primary metric to measure both disability and premature mortality. Nonetheless, DALY-based approaches present methodological challenges, some of which are unique to surgical conditions, not fully addressed through the multiple iterations of the BoD studies, including the most recent study.

Methods and results

This paper examines these challenges in detail, including issues around age-weighting and discounting, and estimates of disability-weights for specific conditions. Surgical burden measurements of specific conditions, or through the assessment of hospital wards as platforms for service delivery, still have unresolved methodological hurdles. The 2010 BoD study addresses some of these issues, but many questions still remain. Other methods estimating surgical prevalence, backlogs in treatment, and disability incurred by delays in care may provide more practical approaches to disease burden that can be useful tools for clinicians and health advocates.

Conclusions

These approaches warrant further exploration in LMICs and these debates require active engagement by surgical providers and advocates globally.

Background

The common goal of surgical training is to provide effective, well-rounded surgeons who are capable of providing a safe and competent service that is relevant to the society within which they work. In recent years, the surgical workforce crisis has gained greater attention as a component of the global human resources in health problems in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to: (1) describe the models for specialist surgical training in Uganda; (2) evaluate the pretraining experience of surgical trainees; (3) explore training models in the United States and Canada and areas of possible further inquiry and intervention for capacity-building efforts in surgery and perioperative care.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted at Makerere University, College of Health Sciences during 2011-2012. Participants were current and recently graduated surgical residents. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire and were entered and analyzed using an excel Microsoft spread sheet. The Makerere University, College of Health Sciences Institutional Review Board approved the study.

Results

Of the 35 potential participants, 23 returned the questionnaires (65 %). Mean age of participants was 29 years with a male/female ratio of 3:1. All worked predominantly in general district hospitals. Pretraining procedures performed numbered 2,125 per participant, which is twice that done by their US and Canadian counterparts during their entire 5-year training period.

Conclusions

A rich pretraining experience exists in East Africa. This should be taken advantage of to enhance surgical specialist training at the institution and regional level.

Background

Surgery and perioperative care have been neglected in the arena of global health despite evidence of cost-effectiveness and the growing, substantial burden of surgical conditions. Various approaches to address the surgical disease crisis have been reported. This article describes the strategy of Global Partners in Anesthesia and Surgery (GPAS), an academically based, capacity-building collaboration between North American and Ugandan teaching institutions.

Methods

The collaboration’s projects shift away from the trainee exchange, equipment donation, and clinical service delivery models. Instead, it focuses on three locally identified objectives to improve surgical and perioperative care capacity in Uganda: workforce expansion, research, collaboration.

Results

Recruitment programs from 2007 to 2011 helped increase the number of surgery and anesthesia trainees at Mulago Hospital (Kampala, Uganda) from 20 to 40 and 2 to 19, respectively. All sponsored trainees successfully graduated and remained in the region. Postgraduate academic positions were created and filled to promote workforce retention. A local research agenda was developed, more than 15 collaborative, peer-reviewed papers have been published, and the first competitive research grant for a principal investigator in the Department of Surgery at Mulago was obtained. A local projects coordinator position and an annual conference were created and jointly funded by partnering international efforts to promote collaboration.

Conclusions

Sub-Saharan Africa has profound unmet needs in surgery and perioperative care. This academically based model helped increase recruitment of trainees, expanded local research, and strengthened stakeholder collaboration in Uganda. Further analysis is underway to determine the impact on surgical disease burden and other important outcome measures.

Background

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

Methods

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

Findings

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

Interpretation

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

Methods

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

Findings

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Interpretation

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

Methods

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

Findings

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

Interpretation

Population growth, increased average age of the world’s population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.